Li Auto (LI) reported strong fourth-quarter earnings early Monday. The Chinese EV maker guided somewhat lower on Q1, but LI stock raced higher.
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Li Auto Earnings
Li Auto earned 60 cents per ADS, up from 4 cents a year earlier. Revenue soared 130% to $5.88 billion. Analysts expected Li Auto earnings per ADS of 44 cents on revenue of $5.5 billion.
Li Auto already disclosed on Jan. 1 that it delivered a record 131,805 vehicles, with its cheapest EV, the L7, accounting for 52,552, or 40%.
Li Auto Outlook
The EV maker forecast Q1 revenue of $4.4 billion to $4.53 billion, up 66%-71% vs. a year earlier in local currency terms, though that’s below analyst forecasts. Deliveries are expected to be 100,000-103,000, up 90%-96% vs. a year earlier but down from Q4’s record 131,805. That’s also under Wall Street targets.
Li delivered 31,365 EVs in January, up 106% vs. a year earlier but down 38% vs. December. That implies February-March sales of 68,635-71,635.
China auto sales are typically weak in January-February. Sales tend to peak at year-end, while the extended China New Year holiday has a big impact on production and sales.
Li Auto will report February sales on Friday, March 1, along with XPeng (XPEV), Nio (NIO) and several other China EV makers. EV and battery giant BYD (BYDDF) will report on March 1 or 2.
Tesla does not disclose China sales. Industry data and insurance registrations suggest the U.S. EV giant’s China deliveries have also have been weak.
Li Auto Upcoming Models
Li Auto currently sells three premium SUVs, the L7, L8 and L9. All are extended range electric vehicles (EREVs), essentially a form of plug-in hybrid.
On March 1, Li Auto will formally launch the Mega MPV, or minivan, its first fully battery electric vehicle (BEV). That had been pushed back from early in the year. The electric MPV, or minivan, segment is getting crowded, with the Li Mega joining the less expensive, but still premium, XPeng X9 and BYD’s Denza D9.
Li also will unveil the 2024 versions of the L7, L8 and L9 on March 1.
In April, Li will unveil the L6, its first model below RMB 300,000.
The automaker also plans to launch three more BEV models in the second half of 2024.
Li Auto Stock
Li Auto stock jumped 15% to 40.03 in Monday market trading. Shares are down 7% in 2024 of Feb. 23, but have rebounded strongly since hitting a seven-month low of 26.43 on Jan. 22. Li e currently working on a 44%-deep double-bottom base with a 42.35 buy point.
Aggressive investors could use a strong post-earnings move above the 200-day line as a place to start a position. A trendline entry around 37.50 is another option.
Li Auto stock is outperforming other EV stocks, which isn’t saying much.
Nio, XPeng and BYD stock are all trading near multimonth lows, along with Tesla stock. Rivian (RIVN) crashed to a post-IPO low last week.
Nio stock gained 6% early Monday. XPeng jumped 6%. Tesla stock climbed 2%. Rivian rebounded 3%.
BYD stock, which trades over the counter in the U.S., rose 5%.
BYD formally launched its Yangwang U9 supercar on Sunday, with a $236,000 price tag. It announced strong orders after one week for the new, cheaper Honor variant of its entry-level Qin+ sedan.
Please follow Ed Carson on Threads at @edcarson1971, X/Twitter at @IBD_ECarson and Bluesky at @edcarson.bsky.social for stock market updates and more.
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