Thomas Tuchel once described the Champions League as “the most beautiful competition, but the most difficult competition that we play”. If competing against Europe’s elite is enjoyably challenging, predicting the outcome of these continental ties is just plain tough. Plumping on Real Madrid lifting the trophy at the end of May is usually a safe bet, but deciphering the intricacies of the competition’s newly expanded league phase is far more complex.
Opta’s so-called supercomputer has taken on the challenge. After simulating the remaining fixtures 50,000 times while drawing upon countless data points, the revered statistical provider has come up with their best guess of the final 36-team table.
Out of 36 competing clubs, only the top eight immediately progress to the round of 16 after completing their eight league-phase fixtures. According to Opta’s calculations, that elite octuple will be spearheaded by all four Premier League clubs. Liverpool and surprise newcomers Aston Villa are the only teams with a perfect record after the first three matchdays. Manchester City were held to a goalless draw with Inter on the opening week of the new competition before rattling nine goals past Slovan Bratislava and Sparta Prague without reply.
Arsenal’s predicted fourth-place position is perhaps the most surprising. The Gunners have kept three European clean sheets, but laboured against Atalanta and Shakhtar Donetsk. Mikel Arteta’s wobbling outfit travel to the home of Italian champions Inter – another team in the predicted top eight – in November and still have to host a Monaco side riding high in Ligue 1.
Real Madrid rarely waste their best performances on the early stages of the competition and needed a barn-storming comeback to defeat Borussia Dortmund earlier this week. Nevertheless, the defending champions are expected to finish in the top eight alongside last season’s beaten finalists Dortmund and Europa League runners-up Bayer Leverkusen.
Both entertainingly flawed outfits could just miss out on an automatic knockout berth. Many of the competition’s relative minnows are unsurprisingly expected to fall out the trap door at the earliest opportunity. Some will do well to collect a single point – there is an 11.6% chance that Slovakian whipping boys Slovan Bratislava’s losing streak is extended.
However, the team which is level on points with Bayern Munich at the Bundesliga summit finds itself rubbing shoulders with these strugglers. RB Leipzig are unbeaten domestically, winning five of their first seven league games, yet have lost all three European ties thus far. Opta’s pre-season prediction had Leipzig finishing tenth in the league phase. Now the unpopular arm of the fizzy drink empire only have five games to save themselves – two of which are against the unbeaten duo of Aston Villa and Inter.
Atletico Madrid snatched all three points on the opening week with a 90th-minute winner, while RB led twice against a Juventus side reduced to ten men before eventually tumbling to defeat in the closing stages. Leipzig could have no complaints about a convincing 1-0 loss to Liverpool on Wednesday night. Marco Rose’s misfiring outfit have suffered misfortune while navigating a fiendishly difficult fixture list.
Opta’s final table has RB Leipzig rooted to the bottom of the league phase, alongside Slovenian champions Maribor and Czech whipping boys Slovacko. The pressure is mounting on Rose, whose team has a monumental task ahead if they wish to avoid a Europa Conference League qualifying round.
RB Leipzig’s predicted demise in the league phase has the potential to send shockwaves through the football world, particularly if the German team’s domestic form continues to falter. For the time being, Leipzig find themselves stuck in a never-ending cycle of mediocrity, with no solution in sight.
