Smoke rises after North Korea blows up sections of inter-Korean roads on its side of the border between the two Koreas, according to South Korea’s military, as seen from the South Korean side. The development is seen as a response to North Korea’s long-standing desire to distract its citizens from turmoil at home, a move that could further heighten tensions in the already volatile region.
In the midst of rising tensions, news emerged that South Korea is considering sending intelligence personnel to Ukraine, where North Korean troops are reportedly fighting on Russia’s behalf. This comes as the US has confirmed that North Korea has sent up to 12,000 troops to fight in Russia’s ongoing war against Ukraine.
According to Yonhap News, South Korea could deploy military personnel from intelligence units, who could analyze North Korean battlefield tactics or take part in interrogations of captured North Koreans. This move would mark a significant departure from Seoul’s long-held policy of not supplying weapons to countries in conflicts.
However, experts say that an armed conflict between North and South Korea is unlikely, even if both sides deploy troops in Ukraine. “I do not foresee the Yoon administration approving the deployment of troops for actual combat operations on Ukrainian soil,” said Nah Liang Tuang, a research fellow at Singapore’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies.
Instead, Seoul may opt to send observers to Ukraine, similar to other countries’ non-combatant observers already stationed in the country. Such a move would maintain the status quo, while still allowing South Korea to demonstrate its support for Ukraine and its allies.
The possibility of personnel from the two Korean countries coming into contact is a concern, but experts say it is unlikely to lead to a wider conflict. “We don’t know how that will play out, just yet,” said Naoko Aoki, a political scientist at American policy think tank RAND.
In the meantime, North Korea’s decision to support Russia’s war effort has raised concerns about the stability of the peninsula. Tensions have been rising of late, with North Korea blowing up connecting railways and roads on its side of the border, and sending trash balloons into South Korea earlier this year. However, experts say an armed conflict is not imminent.
“North Korea would not want to fight a war on the Korean peninsula when some of its troops are in Ukraine fighting someone else’s war,” Aoki pointed out. “Pyongyang’s goal in supporting Russia is to try to deepen its relations with Moscow, gain what it needs from Russia, like information for advanced weapons technology, and combat experience.”
The development has sent shockwaves through the region, with many wondering what the long-term implications are for regional stability. As tensions continue to simmer, one thing is clear: the world is holding its breath, waiting to see how this complex and rapidly evolving situation will play out.
