Just over 24 hours until the first act of the great match between Inter and Juventus. A match which, net of the historic and now consolidated rivalry between the two teams, risks being the first real turning point for Simone Inzaghi and Thiago Motta on the ninth day of this championship.
The former has already lost a direct clash at the beginning of the season – a derby against Milan in which the Nerazzurri were missing for large parts of the match – the latter is fresh from the first defeat of his management – but in the Champions League, against Stuttgart – which however, it heavily undermined some of the certainties that were slowly being consolidated at Juventus.
As often happens – given that neither of the two teams is going through an exciting psycho-physical moment for various reasons – making a clear prediction is complicated, but I want to try anyway. And I say that Inter appear to be favored by a significant margin over Juventus.
My evaluation comes from a basic consideration, the result of what the field has told us from August to today. There has often been debate, also on calciomercato.com, on the long-distance comparison between Thiago Motta and Massimiliano Allegri, on their way of interpreting football and on how their teams tried and try to achieve the result. I would prefer to move the discussion to another front and analyze the two squads, that of the Livorno coach’s last Juventus team and the one made available to the current Juventus coach.
A parallel which, it is worth pointing out, is affected by the significant series of inconveniences and injuries that Juventus has encountered in this first part of the season. In which the possible driving force of the midfield, Koopmeiners, has not yet managed to find an optimal condition, first due to a heavily incomplete preparation and spoiled by the well-known summer vicissitudes of the transfer market, then by the rib injury which stopped him just when he was starting to fuel.
But also under the heading “external attackers” Motta found several problems, considering that Weah, Francisco Conceiçao and Nico Gonzalez were stopped due to their respective physical problems. In short, it is not easy to give an exhaustive and completely credible assessment of most of the new faces of the Juventus 2024/2025 version. Yet, the feeling aroused by the subdued performance of many of them is that not all of the planning of the past months is finding adequate response in the field.
Douglas Luiz, Kephren Thuram and Teun Koopmeiners: together they cost something like 95 million euros, without taking into account the possible bonuses and salaries paid to the players. To date, we can calmly say that the alleged leap in quality compared to the three-man line made up of McKennie, Locatelli and Rabiot has not yet materialized.
The American continues to be a pivot for Thiago Motta too and, for multiple reasons, the three newcomers are struggling to establish themselves. The most deficient department, especially in terms of quality and proposal, has therefore not improved and there are still many gaps in other areas of the pitch.
Cristiano Giuntoli has chosen, in mutual agreement with the coach, not to buy a more physically reliable striker than Milik in order to have a credible alternative to Dusan Vlahovic. With Kean sold to Fiorentina and the Pole’s repeated physical problems, the Juventus number 9 is playing everything and between now and January it will not be easy to manage his energy, considering the long list of commitments between the championship and the Champions League.
On the external lanes, starting from Chiesa, Soulé and Iling-Junior, the focus was on skilled and talented players such as Francisco Conceiçao and Nico Gonzalez, as well as the promising Adzic. Their contribution in terms of creativity, goals and assists was only partially admired: one goal in the league, one plus an assist in the Champions League for the Portuguese, a goal and an assist in the cup also for the Argentine.
A little bit, for the moment. Juventus, who in the previous three seasons showed a certain difficulty in being effective in front of goal, attributing great responsibility to Allegri’s overly conservative tactics, remains an enigma today that Motta has not solved. Football is made up of moments and nothing takes away from the fact that in the coming months all the new signings will be fueled and the overall quality of the Juventus maneuver will be profoundly improved. But the Juventus team that appears at San Siro on Sunday, against an Inter bandaged up and a little out of breath, does not appear stronger today than Allegri’s side.
And losing in Milan, after the harsh lesson suffered this week at the hands of Stuttgart, risks producing significant consequences on the morale of the group, at a time in which continuing to believe in the project and nourishing oneself with optimism is fundamental. For these reasons and in light of the greater certainties offered by Inter, Inzaghi’s team remains the big favourites. Also for the victory in the first seasonal act of the Italian derby.
