One Big Thing Mike Johnson Seems to Get
If you are a regular reader of this newsletter, you know I’ve been a Mike Johnson skeptic.
I thought House Democrats acted hastily and myopically in aiding the ouster of Kevin McCarthy from the speakership, right after he averted a government shutdown. When Johnson won the gavel in October I argued he was not an upgrade. He validated my view when he relied on dishonest claims to justify tanking a bipartisan border policy deal that would have also secured Ukraine aid two months ago.
But I’ve also retained a sliver of hope.
When he first became Speaker, I noted that Johnson at least supported McCarthy’s debt limit deal when it came to on the House floor, indicating that “he’s not a burn-it-all-down conservative.” This hope was validated when Johnson also averted a government shutdown.
After his ascension, Johnson moved away from his past votes against Ukraine aid, saying “We can’t allow Vladimir Putin to prevail in Ukraine.” Last February I wrote, “If he really believes that, and Ukraine aid can’t pass without a link to a border plan, then he’ll find a way to make it happen.”
At the time I thought that meant a vote on the border deal. But now it appears to mean Johnson will make Ukraine aid happen without a border deal, even though—with two House Republicans threatening to force a vote on ousting Johnson—it could mean he suffers McCarthy’s fate.
Why would the otherwise unimpressive Johnson take this political risk? My answer, after what’s leading the Washington Monthly website:
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The Republican House majority is about to get narrower, with Representative Mike Gallagher’s resignation going into effect on Friday. Then the House will have 217 Republicans and 213 Democrats.
This has sometimes been reported as effectively a “one-vote majority” because if two Republicans break ranks on an otherwise party-line vote, the result would be a 215-215 tie, insufficient to pass a measure.
But to pass a “motion to vacate” the Speaker’s chair, if all Democrats obliged, three Republicans would be needed to avoid a loss or tie.
So today’s announcement from Representative Thomas Massie that he would join Marjorie Taylor Greene on a motion to vacate—as punishment for supporting Ukraine aid—doesn’t mean Johnson is quite yet in a position to lose his job, or awkwardly in need of Democratic votes to keep his job. But the possibility looms.
Johnson’s response was heartening: “I am not concerned about this. I am going to do my job, and I think that’s what the American people expect of us.”
This could just be a case of putting on a good face before caving. He could be confident Greene and Massie can’t get the votes.
But I suspect Johnson recognizes, accurately, that the job of Speaker isn’t worth clinging to at all costs.
Especially when the job requires managing this extremely unruly bunch of Republicans.
Considering the massive headaches involved, and the limited ability to move legislation through divided government, it’s not a job worth having just for a nice nameplate on your office door. It’s only worth having if you care about making our government functional enough to avoid instigating and exacerbating global crises.
Whether Johnson has the legislative skill to salvage Ukraine aid and thwart Vladimir Putin’s designs remains questionable. But we can take some solace that the far-right scheme to oust McCarthy did not put in power someone determined to upend the world order.
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Best,
Bill
