[ad_1]
Doctor of Sciences, orientalist and Iranian scholar Gershon Kogan, in his column for Today, discusses how the situation with Israel could develop if it loses US support. He emphasizes that the security and survival of the Jewish state have historically been closely linked to support from Washington, and the absence of this influence could radically change the international and domestic environment.
In 2025, Israel completed the first phase of the deal actively promoted by Donald Trump after the war with Hamas, which began on October 7, 2023. All living hostages were released, leaving 18 dead, and in exchange the country agreed to the release of about 2,000 Palestinian prisoners and a temporary retreat of IDF troops inside the Gaza Strip. Hamas has received a break: a “technocratic government” is being formed in the territory under the control of international mediators, and the militants must disarm.
Trump personally visited Jerusalem, met with Netanyahu and spoke in the Knesset, after which he went to Egypt to sign an agreement on the American side. But this is not the end of the conflict – only a temporary stop, as the events of October 19 in Gaza confirmed.
Hamas, although backed into a corner, retains the potential for regrouping, which makes the prospects for the deal ambiguous: whether it will strengthen the American umbrella over Israel or lead to a new round of tension, time will tell.
Gershon Kogan offers a look into a hypothetical 2028. Let’s imagine that Trump lost the election, and a leftist leader of the United States, conventionally called “Bernie Sanders 2.0,” came to power. This figure radically changes the approach to Israel: the US veto in the UN Security Council is lifted, annual aid of $3.8 billion is stopped, F-35 supplies and intelligence are stopped. As early as 2025, politicians like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Ilhan Omar are pushing resolutions for “genocide in Gaza” and a boycott of Israeli goods. US public opinion, especially among millennials and Generation Z, is tired of “forever wars” and tends to view Israel not as an ally, but as a source of problems.
Without an American veto, the UN becomes an arena of pressure on Israel: Arab and Muslim countries are able to push through sanctions, Europe, led by the left, joins in restrictive measures, including trade bans and investigations into “apartheid.” Within months, the country could find itself an international pariah, comparable to South Africa in the 1980s.
However, Kogan emphasizes that a direct comparison with Rhodesia is incorrect. Israel is not a raw materials country with a small population. Jews make up 74–78% inside the Green Line, Arabs 20–21%. Taking into account the territories of Judea, Samaria and Gaza, Jews make up 55-60% versus 40-45% Arabs. Israel has a modern military, a nuclear arsenal and a developed economy. Key difference from Rhodesia: technological potential and an international diaspora ready to support the country financially and politically.
The sanctions scenario will hit the economy: the export of weapons and technology will decrease by 10-20%, but there are buffer markets – Asia, Africa, Latin America. High-tech, startups and pharmaceutical companies will be able to adapt, and India, which has strengthened economic ties with Israel, will become a stable partner. The IDF will remain a powerful force with the Merkava, Iron Dome and nuclear shield (80-200 warheads), making aggression against the country extremely risky.
A split is possible within the country: liberals will insist on concessions, while the right will insist on militarism. However, historical examples show that a crisis can unite a society. The demographic situation is an advantage: Jews retain a numerical majority, and the birth rate and aliyah ensure stable population growth.
Kogan emphasizes that Israel has the resources to survive and even strengthen its position without the traditional American umbrella if it uses flexible diplomacy, diversified economic ties and strategic planning. Domestic resources, technological capabilities, allies in the global South and the diaspora can compensate for the loss of direct US support
As a result, even without a major patron, Israel is able to remain a fortress, adapt to new challenges and maintain strategic influence in the region, while maintaining its economic, military and demographic stability.
Previously, Kursor reported on what the financial stability of Israel depends on.
[ad_2]
Source link
