Raz Zimmt said in an interview with 103FM that despite reports suggesting Iran may be willing to compromise and extend limits on uranium enrichment, Tehran continues to condition any discussion of its nuclear program on ending the war, lifting the blockade, and the withdrawal of US forces, meaning the core obstacle remains unresolved and no breakthrough has been achieved.
Zimmt, head of the Iran and Shi’ite Axis Program at the Institute for National Security Studies, addressed what has been described as an Iranian proposal currently under discussion. “This is a report about an Iranian proposal,” he clarified.
“The Iranians themselves have said that the version published by Al Jazeera does not necessarily reflect what they actually submitted. What the proposal appears to include is some level of Iranian willingness to compromise on elements related to the nuclear program, for example, extending the duration of uranium enrichment restrictions, or an apparent readiness not to accumulate fissile material even when enrichment resumes after about ten years.”
“The main problem remains that the Iranians, or Iran’s leadership at this stage, are placing an absolute veto on any discussion of the nuclear issue before the war ends,” he emphasized. “In other words, even their willingness to compromise on nuclear matters would only come at the stage when the war is over.”
He added that this also includes lifting the blockade and beginning a US troop withdrawal. “That raises the question: if forces begin to withdraw and the naval blockade is lifted, who guarantees that the discussion on the nuclear issue will be a serious one? This proposal has not yet resolved the core problem. When did we know that Hamas in Gaza was genuinely willing to make far-reaching concessions? When they said, by contrast, that they were ready to release all hostages without an Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip. That hasn’t happened in the Iranian context. They are still not saying they are willing to discuss the nuclear issue in the initial phase, which is of great interest to President Trump.”
“I don’t think they want the war to resume,” Zimmt continued. “It may be that Iran believes it must retain certain nuclear capabilities to allow for a future breakout to nuclear weapons. But beyond the fact that they are not willing to give up these strategic assets to prevent war, they likely have not yet reached the level of pain required to force them to concede. They are still willing to bear the very high economic cost of the naval blockade without agreeing to discuss the nuclear issue, which appears to be holding up any potential agreement with the Americans.”
“It is difficult to determine the point at which Iran will say it is nearing economic collapse and is ready for further significant concessions,” he said. “For now, according to most oil experts I know, Iran likely has the capacity to withstand the naval blockade for at least several more weeks, and beyond that it becomes a matter of decision-making.”
“Even if in a month or a month and a half they reach a point where they can no longer extract oil, that does not mean they will immediately wave a white flag,” he concluded. “The maximum breaking point I see is if the leadership signals it is willing to lift its veto and agree to discuss, without preconditions such as US withdrawal or the end of the war, a general framework for resolving the nuclear issue. If that happens, it would indicate a level of Iranian flexibility we have not seen so far.”
Source:
www.jpost.com
