There’s a reason I avoid making political predictions. The reason has a name: Naftali Bennett. When Bennett managed to become prime minister in 2021 with just seven mandates (three of whom later defected), it was a political achievement but not democracy’s finest moment. It took more chutzpah than political acumen, making it very hard to foresee.
At the time, Bennett teamed up with Yesh Atid leader Yair Lapid, and their “bond of brothers” – “brit achim” – created the so-called “Government of Change.” How refreshing that change was depends, of course, on whom you ask. Dependent on the Arab parties to keep its majority, the government found itself in a state of political paralysis – a stalemate with the emphasis more on the “stale” than the “mate.”
Bennett’s period at the country’s helm lasted just one year. He obviously thinks he deserves another chance in the election that is due to be held before the end of October.
This week, Bennett and Lapid again linked up in a move that generated more media buzz than real change in the political map. Their joint party, imaginatively called Beyachad (Together), rescued Lapid from ignominiously hovering just above the electoral threshold and gave Bennett much-needed party funding and an organized campaign network. It also boosted talk of Bennett’s standing as a potential replacement for Benjamin Netanyahu as prime minister, his main achievement in 2021. It did not (yet), however, make the one change that they need – the change in the blocs.
Israeli politics is about blocs – and you can give those blocs a name, too: “Only Bibi” or “Anyone but Bibi.” The way the system inelegantly works, the prime minister is not automatically the leader of the party that gains the largest number of votes, but the person who can present to the president the likelihood of the most stable coalition – usually a collection of parties amounting to at least 61 seats out of the 120-member Knesset. This leads to political bartering both before and particularly after an election, and places a disproportionate amount of power in the hands of the leaders of smaller parties, who can play kingmaker.
The first public “bromance” between Bennett and Lapid was in 2013 when they joined forces to enter the Netanyahu government to block the haredi (ultra-Orthodox) parties. It remains to be seen whether former IDF chief-of-staff Gadi Eisenkot, who heads the Yashar party, will answer Bennett and Lapid’s call to join their “brotherhood.”
It’s hard to keep up with the name changes. Bennett entered politics with Bayit Yehudi (Jewish Home), which assumed the role of the former National Religious Party. He has since led the New Right and then Yamina (Rightward) before taking a left turn without signaling – leaving those who voted for him wary of what his next move might be. He seems to be driven more by ego than ideology.
Ultimately, many of the parties become known by the name of the leader – Eisenkot’s party, Benny Gantz’s party (currently bordering on extinction), Yair Golan’s the Democrats party (an amalgamation of Labor and Meretz), Yoaz Hendel’s Reservists (unlikely to cross the electoral threshold without joining with another list). Even the new party announced this week took the name “Together, led by Bennett.”
The Likud is still a one-man show – Bibi Netanyahu’s baby – but there is talk of a breakaway party hoping to challenge him. That’s not what’s needed. We do not need more individuals, however talented, however principled, further fracturing the political map. Now is the time for all good men (and women) to come to the aid of the existing party.
So far, this time there has been no mention of a rotation agreement between Bennett and Lapid as prime minister, and the two parties on the Beyachad list will retain their independence and the right to split if politically expedient after the election.
Hard to see how government will be formed
It is hard to see how a government can be formed without either the ultra-Orthodox (haredi) or the Arab parties – which would guarantee an opposition within the coalition, whoever’s in power.
Bennett this week promised to implement a conscription law that would prevent draft evasion by the ultra-Orthodox and “strengthen an inclusive, welcoming Judaism without coercion,” permitting same-sex and civil marriage in Israel (today they are recognized if carried out abroad but have no recognized framework within the country).
If I bring my crystal ball out of retirement, no matter how hard I look, I doubt I will see the Arab parties and the haredim pushing for gay rights and mass conscription for all.
Bennett and Lapid are both promising “change” and “healing,” or “repair.” There is indeed a lot that needs fixing, but when parties are barely united within themselves, and are busy proclaiming those they won’t sit with, they are not going to be able to pull together to effect real reform.
Every government is going to claim to act to boost security, the economy, health, and education. There will also be arguments over the status of the judiciary – the extent it can intervene in the government’s decisions, appointments, and legislation.
In the aftermath of the October 7, 2023, Hamas-led invasion and mega-atrocity, and the war on seven fronts, any government will promise to ensure Iran does not have a stockpile of ballistic missiles and nuclear weapons, and act to broaden the peace agreements beyond the Abraham Accords and the recently announced Isaac Accords.
These goals will be hard to achieve when the desire to destroy a political rival is the overriding one and the discourse, on both sides, is poisonous.
When Bennett took office in 2021, he immediately reneged on a campaign promise and brought Arab MK Mansour Abbas’s Ra’am party into the government, with tremendous veto power. Ultimately, Abbas’s refusal to vote to extend the regulations over Judea and Samaria (the West Bank) was the catalyst for Bennett calling for the dispersal of the government in 2022 and handing the reins over to Lapid, who held the job that tops his CV for all of six months, until the new government was formed after the elections.
The current government has promoted construction and strengthened Judea and Samaria. It’s not clear how Bennett and Lapid will draw up a mutually agreed plan for those areas. Bennett, in a former incarnation, was the head of the Yesha (Judea and Samaria) Council, but he’s come a long way since then, in the opposite direction.
Strangely, during his albeit brief term in office, Bennett failed to move into the Prime Minister’s Residence in Jerusalem. This was more significant than it might seem. At a time when Jerusalem’s status is constantly under attack as Israel’s capital, the prime minister chose to keep his main base at his home in Ra’anana, a place most foreigners can’t pronounce, let alone locate on a map.
I also find it hard to forget, or forgive, Bennett flying to Russia – on Shabbat, no less – to meet with President Vladimir Putin shortly after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Maybe he hoped to put himself on the world map as a statesman and mediator. It’s a pity he wasn’t paying more attention to what was going on just across Israel’s borders.
The Iran-sponsored, Hamas-led invasion and mega-atrocity on October 7, 2023, clearly took place on Netanyahu’s watch as prime minister, but Bibi isn’t the only one to have missed the warning signs.
Lapid’s major “achievement,” in the few months he was prime minister, was in October 2022, during his last days in office, when he effectively handed over part of Israel’s waters and part of a potential maritime gas field, in the vain attempt to avert Hezbollah’s hostilities. This was no more effective at staving off Hezbollah’s murderous rocket attacks than Netanyahu’s attempts to maintain quiet in Gaza through the influx of Qatari money.
When Bennett this week said his first act as prime minister would be to establish a state commission of inquiry into the events surrounding October 7, Lapid’s Lebanon deal – which Lapid had refused to bring to a Knesset vote – must be included on the agenda.
The problem in politics is not the promises made but the promises broken. Right now, the question is less “Who am I voting for?” and more “Who am I likely to end up with?” Almost anything is possible. There’s a name for it. As long as Netanyahu is around, it will continue to come down to the question of: “To Bibi or not to Bibi?”
Source:
www.jpost.com
