Politics
With only about ten days to go, we will soon be seeing the first presidential contest of 2024 with the Iowa caucus.
And according to CNN – yes, CNN – Donald Trump is absolutely killing it.
The Daily Caller reported, “CNN Data Reporter: Trump Has CNN’s senior data reporter Harry Enten said Thursday that former President Donald Trump has the ‘strongest’ poll numbers in the ‘history’ of the Iowa caucus.”
The numbers have to be discouraging for the campaigns of challengers Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis, who are both counting on a strong showing in early states.
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‘Just How Large Trump’s Lead Is’
The story noted, “Trump is currently leading the Republican candidates in both New Hampshire and Iowa at 46% and 51% respectively, according to RealClearPolitics. Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley is trailing Trump by 24.8% and 16% in both states respectively.”
Harry Enten was emphatic about how strong Trump’s numbers were in Iowa:
“It’s an enormous lead!” Enten exclaimed. “I’m gonna show the trend line for the Des Moines Register poll which is the premier poll in that state. And what you essentially see here is Donald Trump has only gotten stronger. He was at 43% in October. Look where he is now. More than a majority, more than 50%, a majority at 51%. And you see Ron DeSantis within the margin of error where he was in October. Look at Nikki Haley, she’s stable. This is an over 30-point advantage with Trump getting a majority of the vote. And I want to put this in a historic context for you. Just how large Trump’s lead is. These are folks who polled at 45% or greater in Iowa at this point. All before Trump won the caucuses. Mondale in ’84, Bush in 2000, Gore in 2000, Hillary Clinton in 2016, and now we see Trump in 2024.
I would note, in fact, Trump is the only one to actually be at greater than 50% of the vote. The rest of these folks were at 50% of the vote or lower.”
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Strongest in Iowa Caucus History
Mattingly followed up, “History?”
“History,” Enten replied.
Iowa is not necessarily indicative of how all the upcoming primaries and caucuses will go in the various states.
In 2016, Ted Cruz won Iowa and went down in flames to Donald Trump. In 2012, Rick Santorum won Iowa, only to be blown out of the water by Mitt Romney.
In 2008, eventual winner John McCain took last place in Iowa.
But if Donald Trump is currently outpacing every other candidate in the history of such an event, it’s worth paying attention to.
2024 has only just begun.
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