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Tens of thousands of people who have legally settled in Britain could be at risk of deportation under plans by Reform UK to scrap the main route towards British citizenship – a policy that was immediately dismissed as “an unworkable stunt based on dodgy maths”.
Nigel Farage said the current option of indefinite leave to remain – open to those who have lived and worked in Britain for five years – has “betrayed democracy” and vowed to abolish it.
The plans were condemned by migration charities and think tanks, as well as the care industry, which warned of crippling labour shortages.
Doubt was also cast over Mr Farage’s claim that savings from the policy would be “considerably larger” than the £230bn once suggested by the Centre for Policy Studies (CPS), despite the think tank having since said its figure should no longer be used.
And despite the Reform leader’s claims the proposals would cut Britain’s welfare bill, it has emerged that EU citizens would be exempted from plans to ban all migrants from receiving benefits. This means only 2.7 per cent of universal credit claimants would be affected by Reform’s clampdown.
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Josephine Whitaker-Yilmaz, head of advocacy at charity Praxis, warned the proposals would “tank our already-struggling economy, by disrupting the lives of millions of people who’ve been living and working legally in the UK for many years”.
Ben Brindle, a researcher at the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford, questioned Mr Farage’s statement that half of those who have migrated to the UK are not working.
And Sunder Katwala, director of British Future, said: “Threatening to revoke the settled status of millions who already have indefinite leave is morally wrong, beyond the legal and practical chaos it would cause – it undermines the very idea of belonging in this country.”
Mr Farage told reporters his plans would target the “Boris-wave” – the wave of legal immigrants who arrived under post-Brexit rules created by Boris Johnson.
“Half the ‘Boris-wave’ migrants do not work, and never will,” he said. “At least 800,000 of them will shortly qualify for indefinite leave to remain, which gives them lifetime access to our welfare state. This is a scam on the British people perpetrated by the Tory party. Reform will avert this crisis.”
But Mr Brindle said: “It does seem from the existing – patchy – data that more than half are working. As for the ‘will never work’ part of it, I’m not sure what the basis of any prediction about the future would be. Generally we see that employment rates go up over time for the groups who do worse in the labour market, such as family members.”
Asked if the plans would also target those from Hong Kong and Ukraine, who came to Britain under government schemes, a visibly irritated Mr Farage responded: “800,000 people are due to qualify for indefinite leave to remain over the course of the next few years. This press conference is to say none of them will get it. Thank you.”
In a policy document, Reform said the £230bn savings figure would be achieved by “taking decisive action on immigration and welfare”.
But the CPS, which first came up with the figure, said “overall cost estimates should no longer be used” after the Office for Budget Responsibility “revised their definitions of some of the fiscal data contained within our report”.
Asked to address the CPS’ statement, Mr Farage said: “The £230bn figure, as Zia [Yusuf, head of policy] has just said, that is without a doubt too low. It underestimates things, I suspect many more than 800,000 actually will apply for indefinite leave to remain, plus it’s quite tough to get all the figures.
“And if you go back to those who have already been granted indefinite leave to remain, without doubt the number is considerably bigger.”
Ms Whitaker-Yilmaz said: “As is becoming the norm with Reform, these proposals are nothing but an unworkable stunt based on dodgy maths. But let’s be clear what this boils down to: Reform do not want foreigners here. Indefinite leave to remain is crucial: it enables people to put down roots in their communities and fulfil their potential, and brings them a step closer to gaining British citizenship.”
Meanwhile, Nadra Ahmed, executive chair of the National Care Association, said Reform “do not understand the value of social care”.
“More worryingly they seem out of step with their own councillors,” she told The Independent, referring to Linden Kemkaran, leader of Reform-run Kent council, who wrote to the Home Office criticising government plans to tighten visas for health and care workers.
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Labour Party chair Anna Turley added: “Farage is unable to say how many families his policy would break up, what the cost to businesses would be, what would happen to pensioners and how long it would take to implement – basic questions that any serious political party would know the answers to before making an announcement like this.”
And Nicola Ranger, general secretary of the Royal College of Nursing, said the plans are “abhorrent beyond words”, adding: “These are people who have come to the UK to care for patients and become part of our communities. They deserve so much better than this.”
She continued: “It shows neither compassion nor an understanding of the fundamental role our brilliant migrant nursing staff play in health and care. Without them, services would simply cease to function.”
