A new peer-reviewed study has mapped the evolving formula for Eurovision success. It finds that English lyrics, pop styling, and danceable rhythms dominate among high-performing entries over seven decades. Countries are increasingly behaving like strategic players who learn from past results.
Led by ETH Zurich and published in Royal Society Open Science, the research examined 1,763 songs by 51 countries between 1956 and 2024. The team coded more than 35 attributes for each track. The field has steadily converged on traits linked with better outcomes. The authors caution that following this pattern raises the odds but does not guarantee a win.
The dataset covered danceability, acousticness, emotional valence, language, genre, and lyrical themes. One clear shift is linguistic. English has become Eurovision’s lingua franca, rising sharply after the language rules were abolished in 1998. Using English markedly improves competitiveness. Relying on national languages—especially French after 1990—correlates with lower placements.
French featured in many early winners. Since the early 1990s, it has been associated with entries finishing further down the table.
The researchers describe a broader homogenization of style. Pop has become the standard. Danceability has climbed. Acoustic elements have receded among the most successful songs. The convergence has produced a Red Queen effect, making English lyrics, pop arrangements, and pronounced rhythmic drive baseline expectations rather than differentiators.
The project used the Spotify API to quantify rhythmic momentum and related traits. When a dynamic, highly danceable song does well, similar rhythmic profiles tend to dominate for the next five years. This cascading influence shows how quickly perceived success factors diffuse among delegations. It intensifies the competitive arms race around common features.
The team also used AI to examine lyrical themes across decades. Earlier eras often leaned on nostalgia. Since 2010, winning and high-placing entries have increasingly explored darker emotional registers—pain, rebellion, and despair. This suggests that contemporary pop sensibilities within Eurovision reward more intense affective expression.
France, Italy, Portugal, and Spain stand out as countries prioritizing national languages despite a reduced statistical likelihood of winning. The data indicate a trade-off in expected placement.
The researchers note the “recipe” is probabilistic at best, as even tight matches may not triumph in any given year, given juror preferences, audience tastes, and shifting fashion.
Since 1999, the average number of words in competitive Eurovision songs has risen by 20%. Today’s favored formula involves more intricate choruses and more sophisticated lyrical scaffolding aligned with modern pop writing.
Source:
www.jpost.com
