Yaki Dayan, the former Israeli consul in Los Angeles, warned that the US-Saudi Arabia civilian nuclear agreement could spark a regional arms race and argued that US President Donald Trump is trapped in an escalating confrontation with Iran with no clear exit strategy during an interview with 103FM on Thursday.
“This has been in the works for quite a few months,” Dayan told 103FM’s Barak Seri and Eli Ohana.
“Trump wants to close as many deals as possible for as much money as possible. I assume this does not include normalization; otherwise, we would already know about it. As for the agreement itself, we need to see it, and it will be submitted for approval in the coming days.”
US-Saudi deal differs from UAE deal, Dayan says
“The difference between the agreement signed with the United Arab Emirates in 2009 and this one is that the Emirates cannot carry out uranium enrichment independently. What the Saudis received is essentially a two-year trial period, after which the Americans may allow Saudi Arabia to enrich uranium on its own territory. If not, there is a ten-year veto period, after which the Saudis can reopen the issue,” he explained regarding the reported terms of the agreement.
Dayan also argued that Trump’s economic motivations are once again influencing US policy, stating that “Trump is getting tens of billions of dollars in return for this deal. American companies will receive tens of billions of dollars, and from his perspective, it’s ultimately a business matter. What’s the biggest problem here? Even if Congress does not approve this agreement, the president can veto Congress’s rejection, and then Congress would need a two-thirds majority.”
“It’s clear there is no two-thirds majority for anything in Congress today. The Democrats oppose it. Even if Congress does not approve it, the president has veto power, and it would take a two-thirds majority to override the president’s veto.” He further warned: “If the Saudis receive independent enrichment capability, the Turks will come and say, ‘We want it too,’ and the Egyptians will say the same.”
Trump’s promise about war with Iran not fulfilled
Dayan then analyzed the situation in Iran from his perspective, saying that “Trump entered this war with one promise to the American people: ‘I’m going to make sure Iran no longer has a nuclear program.’ We know that mission has not been completed.”
“Right now, we’re engaged in a campaign to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Trump is saying, ‘Hold me back,’ because he wants the Qataris to come today and say that the Iranians are prepared to reopen Hormuz,” Dayan continued.
Dayan claimed that Trump is “not willing to return to the deal proposed by the Qataris and the Pakistanis – a ten-day ceasefire during which they would ensure the Strait of Hormuz was reopened.”
“He’s already been through that. Therefore, if the Qataris come today or tomorrow and say the Iranians are ready to reopen it, then yes. If not, Trump is caught in an escalation trap,” he added.
“The escalation trap means the following: Trump would prefer to bring this situation to a controlled conclusion,” Dayan said. “This war is, to put it mildly, unpopular in the United States. Oil prices are rising again, and the midterm elections are getting closer.”
“Trump’s political advisers are shouting, as are Republicans around him, that they’re going to lose the House of Representatives and the Senate if they don’t focus on the cost of living and if the entire public discussion revolves around the campaign against Iran. We’ll lose,” he asserted.
“That’s why he’s in an escalation trap – because he currently has no way out. Before he can deal with Iran’s nuclear program, he first has to reopen the Strait of Hormuz,” Dayan concluded.
Source:
www.jpost.com
