Over recent months, a subtle yet profound shift has taken place in the way Morocco is treated within parts of the Arab world. There has been no formal diplomatic rupture, no openly hostile declaration, yet a series of persistent signals has emerged: a colder media tone, growing ambiguity surrounding Western Sahara, increased visibility granted to Algeria in certain Arab outlets, and a new tolerance for narratives that relativize what Rabat considers non-negotiable.
Taken individually, these signals might appear anecdotal. Taken together, they reveal a deeper strategic realignment, characteristic of a post-solidarity Arab world in which historical causes increasingly give way to power balances, tactical rivalries and calculated ambiguity.
Western Sahara is not, for Morocco, a peripheral diplomatic issue. It lies at the very heart of national identity, territorial continuity and political legitimacy. Formerly administered by Spain, the territory was reintegrated into Morocco in 1975 following the Green March. Since then, the Polisario Front, backed politically and diplomatically by Algeria, has claimed independence. The UN-brokered ceasefire of 1991 froze the conflict without resolving it, locking the file into a prolonged stalemate.
Morocco’s 2007 autonomy proposal under Moroccan sovereignty gradually became the backbone of its diplomatic strategy. Over time, this framework gained traction among Western partners as the only realistic and workable solution, a shift that explains why the battle around the dossier has intensified precisely now. For Rabat, the current phase is no longer about managing a frozen conflict, but about consolidating a political outcome.
This dynamic reached a symbolic turning point with October 31. Originally a technical UN deadline marking the annual renewal of the MINURSO mandate, the date was elevated by Mohammed VI to the status of a national holiday dedicated to unity and territorial integrity. By sacralizing this date, Morocco sent a clear message to both its partners and its rivals: Western Sahara is no longer a negotiable file subject to endless procedural delays, but an integral and irreversible component of Moroccan sovereignty.
This political momentum is precisely what Algeria seeks to slow down. From Algiers’ perspective, the objective is not necessarily to secure an immediate diplomatic victory, but to prevent an irreversible consolidation of Morocco’s framework. Algeria’s strategy rests on widening diplomatic partnerships, leveraging its role as an energy supplier, occupying media and narrative space, and injecting uncertainty ahead of future UN milestones. The aim is not to impose an alternative solution, but to keep the process sufficiently ambiguous to delay closure.
At the regional level, the role of the United Arab Emirates is central. Abu Dhabi has become one of Morocco’s most consistent strategic partners, sharing a vision centered on state stability, opposition to political Islam, and pragmatic diplomacy. This partnership extends beyond bilateral cooperation. The UAE was among the first Arab states to formalize relations with Israel through the Abraham Accords, and Morocco followed in 2020, embracing normalization as a calculated strategic choice tied to security cooperation, technological exchange and diplomatic leverage.
Regionally, this alignment has consequences. Morocco and the UAE are perceived as actors willing to assume clear strategic choices, including normalization, while other capitals continue to navigate ambiguity. This contrast feeds into broader rivalries within the Gulf.
This is where the position of Saudi Arabia becomes particularly delicate. Riyadh is not hostile to Morocco by default, and historically the relationship has been strong. However, Saudi Arabia is currently navigating a complex equation: asserting symbolic leadership in the Arab and Sunni worlds while managing the Israeli file as a central pillar of its regional legitimacy.
Unlike the UAE and Morocco, Saudi Arabia continues to state publicly that normalization with Israel is conditional upon the creation of a Palestinian state. This stance is not merely diplomatic; it is foundational to Riyadh’s claim to leadership. In a context of growing rivalry with Abu Dhabi, Saudi Arabia has an interest in positioning itself as the guardian of Arab red lines. In this narrative competition, Morocco’s proximity to both the UAE and Israel becomes less a cause of confrontation than a lever in a broader battle of legitimacy and influence.
Egypt, under Abdel Fattah al-Sissi, adopts a more cautious and tactical posture. Cairo has no interest in an open rift with Rabat, yet it is deeply dependent on Riyadh economically and strategically. Its alignment is therefore calibrated. Egyptian media increasingly reflect this distance, stepping back from automatic support for Morocco’s position without openly endorsing the Algerian narrative.
What is unfolding today is not an anti-Moroccan Arab front, but a phase of indirect pressure in which Western Sahara becomes a lever within wider regional rivalries. For Morocco, however, this dossier remains an absolute red line. It is not a bargaining chip, nor a variable to be adjusted in response to shifting alliances. Alliances may evolve and narratives may fluctuate, but the centrality of Western Sahara to Moroccan sovereignty does not.
Playing with that reality, even tactically, is a high-risk strategy.
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(*) Isaac Hammouch is a Belgian-Moroccan journalist and writer. Author of several books and opinion pieces, he focuses on societal issues, governance, and the transformations shaping the contemporary world.
