Europe faces a strategic test: how to deter and, if necessary, defend against Russia while the role of the United States in European security appears to be changing. Policymakers and analysts say reliance on transatlantic guarantees alone leaves a gap that needs to be addressed through sustained capabilities and a clearer operational doctrine for collective defence across the continent.
Russia has employed a mix of cyber operations, political interference and visible military demonstrations that have increased concern among NATO members. Independent analyses have recorded marked rises in cyber activity against NATO states, and recent incidents cited by governments include warship live‑fire exercises conducted within a few dozen miles of allied coasts. Those developments have coincided with a renewed emphasis by Moscow on influence campaigns and forward military posturing.
Defence budgets are rising across Europe, particularly in countries closer to potential frontlines, and governments are prioritising investments in air and missile defence, logistics and cyber resilience. At the same time Brussels and member states have expanded collaborative tools designed to deepen operational cooperation, including existing frameworks such as PESCO and the European Defence Fund. Observers note that even proposals for a more Europe‑focused NATO or a so‑called “NATO 3.0” would still leave the United States heavily influential, reinforcing arguments for an independent European insurance capability.
Nathalie Tocci and other commentators have urged Europe to accelerate the development of a distinct “way of war” that complements, rather than duplicates, transatlantic arrangements. Building that capacity will require sustained funding, logistical integration, interoperable command structures and political agreement among member states. European leaders face the practical task of translating higher budgets and cooperative programmes into deployable forces and hardened resilience measures capable of responding to hybrid and conventional threats alike.
