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France is on the brink of losing its third prime minister in 12 months, with incumbent François Bayrou facing a confidence vote that he called but is widely expected to lose.
The minority government’s expected fall threatens to bring more political and economic upheaval, less than a year after former prime minister Michel Barnier’s short-lived administration imploded in December.
If Bayrou and his government do not win the vote on Monday, French president Emmanuel Macron will have to choose his fifth prime minister in less than two years. Macron has come under fire over France’s current crisis, following a snap election that he called last year.
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Why is the confidence vote being held?
In an effort to secure the 2026 budget, Bayrou called for a confidence vote in the hopes that it would unite politicians in the sharply fragmented National Assembly, France’s lower and more prominent house of parliament.
However, key opposition parties including the National Rally and the Socialist Party have already pledged to vote against him.
“I want to tell you how happy I am that the government will fall today. For many French it’s a relief,” Manuel Bompard, from the left-wing France Unbowed party, told the local radio network France Info .
Bayrou is facing major opposition to his budget plan that includes €44bn (£38bn) of spending cuts and tax hikes, which he argues are needed to rein in the country’s spiralling deficit and debts.
He has also proposed cutting two public holidays as a way to reduce costs, which ignited national anger.
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What could happen if he loses?
If he loses, Bayrou must submit his resignation to Macron, who will then either name a new head of government or dissolve the lower house and call early elections.
The French president has so far rejected the idea of renewed snap elections and has repeatedly insisted he will not resign.
If Macron names a new premier, questions remain over how the government will pass the unpopular budget.
Bayrou expressed frustration on Sunday that rivals on the opposite ends of the political spectrum in the National Assembly are ganging up against him.
“What’s the point of bringing down the government? These are political groups that not only don’t agree on anything but, far worse than that, are waging open civil war against each other,” he told the French online media outlet Brut.
Why is France’s economy in crisis?
France, the second largest economy in Europe after Germany, has one of the highest levels of spending in the continent.
Last year, public spending accounted for 57 per cent of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP), on financing healthcare and welfare including its generous pension and unemployment benefits.
This has led to big deficits and rising national debt, which stands at €3.35trn (£2.9trn) as of the financial year ending March 2025, which equates to almost 114 per cent of its GDP. By comparison, the UK’s debt is £2.9trn, representing almost 96 per cent of GDP.
