A rare decline in fossil-fuel carbon dioxide emissions is expected this year, but the improvement is too small and too fragile to change the global climate trajectory. The 2026 Global Carbon Budget, published in Earth System Science Data and due to be presented during COP31 in Antalya, projects a 0.4% drop in CO2 from oil, gas and coal. It would be the first annual fall in fossil emissions since the pandemic year of 2020.
The projected decline reflects two very different forces. Expanding solar and wind capacity, batteries and electric vehicles are helping restrain carbon emissions even as global energy use rises. At the same time, the conflict involving Iran has tightened fuel availability and pushed up prices, reducing demand for oil. The report estimates fossil-fuel CO2 emissions at 38.2 billion metric tons this year, still an enormous volume of heat-trapping gas entering the atmosphere.
Large economies show diverging patterns. Emissions are projected to fall by 0.9% in China, 1.3% in the United States, 1.5% in the European Union and 1% in Japan. In India, however, annual CO2 emissions are expected to rise by 4.4%. The report also identifies around 40 countries that have reduced emissions over the past decade while growing their economies, including the United States, Australia, New Zealand, South Korea, the United Kingdom, Japan and about 30 EU members.
Joeri Rogelj, a climate scientist at Imperial College London who was not involved in the study, described the slowdown in emissions growth as a sign that decarbonisation is beginning to register, while stressing that a 0.4% fall remains very limited. Study co-author Judith Hauck of the Alfred Wegener Institute said rising energy demand alone would have implied substantially higher fossil CO2 output. Around two-thirds of that additional demand is being met by clean technologies, while higher energy prices have also dampened consumption.
The broader climate balance is less encouraging. Emissions from land-use change, peat fires, deforestation and forest fires linked to dry El Niño conditions mean total global CO2 emissions from all sources are projected to rise from 42.8 billion metric tons last year to a record 43.3 billion metric tons this year. The remaining carbon budget for limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius is estimated at 150 billion metric tons, less than four years at current rates. The report’s message is therefore cautious: clean energy is beginning to bend the curve, but not yet fast enough to deliver a sustained decline.
