Model risk looms. Flávio Bolsonaro has pointed to Javier Milei as an economic template for Brazil, but the Argentine experience so far suggests significant trade-offs. Milei’s early months in power have been marked by aggressive market-oriented measures, intense currency volatility and persistent inflationary pressures. For policymakers in Argentina and observers abroad, the question is whether the political appeal of radical reform can outweigh its social and economic costs.
The core of Milei’s strategy has included proposals for dollarisation, deep spending cuts and rapid deregulation designed to reassure investors and shrink the state’s footprint. Those moves produced strong reactions in domestic and international markets and have not yet delivered a decisive return to price stability or broad-based improvement in living standards. Critics and many analysts note that abrupt adjustments have hit vulnerable households and strained public services, while supporters argue the measures are necessary to break chronic macroeconomic imbalances.
Transposing such a program to Brazil would carry distinct risks. Brazil’s economy, public debt profile and social safety structures differ markedly from Argentina’s, and sudden contractionary policies could exacerbate inequality and political polarization. There is also the risk of increased exposure to short-term capital flows and a loss of policy space if authorities cede monetary or fiscal tools in the name of rapid credibility. In addition, public institutions and labour markets may not be able to absorb the shock of swift liberalisation without targeted measures to protect employment and basic services.
Voters and decision-makers face a clear choice: adopt headline-grabbing reforms that promise market confidence but bring uncertainty for ordinary households, or pursue more gradual adjustments that seek to balance stability with social protection. The Argentine case provides a cautionary example rather than a straightforward blueprint. Any proposal to emulate Milei should be accompanied by rigorous impact assessment, transparent implementation plans and safeguards for the most affected groups, so that economic change does not translate into avoidable social hardship.
